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Heritage scientist timeline – Frank Foster Evison

Frank Evison was a pioneer in the field of earthquake prediction, yet when he was born in 1922, we were still 40 years away from an understanding of plate tectonics.

Frank Foster Evison (1922–2005) by a globe on filing cabinet

Frank Evison, geophysicist

Frank Foster Evison (1922–2005) was a pioneer in the field of earthquake prediction.

Rights: Robert Cross, Victoria University of Wellington Image Services

During his lifetime, our understanding of earthquakes improved dramatically, and international optimism about their prediction peaked in the 1970s before eventually waning in the 1990s. Despite this, Frank’s commitment never faltered. He believed passionately that, as a scientist, he had a duty to society, and his dedication to producing a reliable method of earthquake forecasting continued until his death in 2005.

Frank was born in Christchurch, and he lived there with his parents and siblings until he was 15. His mother was a trained teacher, and before Frank started school at 6, she taught him to read, write and do basic maths. Frank continued to do well academically once at school and was often top of his class.

In 1937, Frank’s family moved to Wellington, and he started at Wellington College. Frank stayed in Wellington for his university studies and graduated from Victoria University of Wellington with a BSc in physics in 1944 and a MA with Honours in mathematics in 1946. Although his studies focused on science, Frank was also very interested in economics, English and history and completed papers in these subjects.

After the war, during which Frank served on several coastal radar stations, he worked his passage to the UK as a donkeyman on a ship. It was in London that Frank met his wife Joan and started to specialise in geophysics, gaining his PhD from the University of London.

On his return to New Zealand, Frank spent a number of years as a government scientist with the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research (DSIR). During this time, Frank made one of his most well known discoveries – coal-seam guided S waves, eventually renamed ‘Evison waves’.

Frank possessed a strong belief that scientists have a duty to society and that reliable earthquake prediction would help minimise loss of life and suffering.

Frank Foster Evison

In 1967, Frank began an academic career and was appointed inaugural Professor of Geophysics at Victoria University. Shortly after this, Frank began his research into earthquake forecasting. Many aspects of his upbringing, personality and academic background were evident in the way he tackled his research:

Respect for data: Frank did not belong to the computer generation, and although he did use computers when necessary, he had learned to carry out data analysis by hand and was able to find precursory swarms by examining printed earthquake catalogues. As a result, he believed strongly in an empirical approach to test earthquake prediction models and was pioneering in his rigorous testing of models.

A questioning nature: Frank was very articulate and loved to argue and debate. He pushed others to defend their ideas and question the prevailing view of science. Frank argued passionately for his ideas but was also willing to admit when he was wrong.

Belief in collaboration: Frank travelled extensively as part of his research and was very well known overseas. He believed strongly in true international collaboration and also served on a number of international committees. His role in establishing the Institute of Geophysics at Victoria University is also evidence of his belief in the importance of collaborative research.

Frank Evison and David Rhoades in office with bookcase behind

Frank Evison and David Rhoades

Frank Evison collaborated with statistician David Rhoades for many years.

Rights: GNS Science

Towards the end of his life, Frank was frustrated that he had not made more progress towards his goal. However, true to his nature, Frank remained focused on the future and remained committed to the idea that, at some stage, accurate earthquake prediction would be possible. Frank’s legacy continues in the scholarship that was established in his honour in 2006 and the international symposium in 2008 that brought together leading scientists in earthquake forecasting.

The timeline below lets you see aspects of Frank's life and work, and how his findings changed scientific thinking. A full timeline transcript is here.

Frank Evison – geophysicist

  • Changing scientific ideas
  • Advances in science and technology
  • Biography
1900
1900
Measuring earthquakes

The first seismograph in New Zealand is installed in Wellington. Seismographs measure and record information during earthquakes.

1906
1906
Elastic rebound theory

After the San Francisco earthquake, HF Reid develops a theory that earthquakes result from the sudden elastic rebound along a fault, driven by previously stored energy. This theory underpins many long-term forecasts in the years to come.

1922
1922
Frank is born

Harry Evison

Frank Foster Evison is born in Christchurch where he lives with his family until they move to Wellington in 1937.

Image: Roger, Frank and Harry Evison, Christmas 1927
Courtesy of Harry Evison

1937
1937
Life in Wellington

Harry Evison

Attends Wellington College. A love of tramping, skiing and mountaineering develops.

Image: Rusty Rawlings and Frank Evison (on right) on Mount Duff 1951. Courtesy Harry Evison

1939
1939
World War II

From 1939-1945 Frank serves in the Royal New Zealand Air Force as the commanding officer of the radar station in Wellington for part of World War II.

1944
1944
Frank graduates

Graduates from Victoria University of Wellington with a BSc in physics in 1944 and a MA with Honours in mathematics in 1946.

1946
1946
Travels to Britain

Marries Joan Alpers. They go on to have three children – David, Margaret and Rosemary. Family holidays often involve trips to out-of-the-way seismographs!

1950
1950
Joins DSIR

Joins Geophysics Division of the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research (DSIR) and works in exploration geophysics. Discovers coal-seam guided S waves in 1955 – renamed ‘Evison waves’ in 1985.

1957
1957
Research gains recognition

NIWA

Gains a Nuffield Fellowship in 1957 and a Fulbright Award in 1963.

1960
1960
Plate tectonics

Before the 1960s, it was thought that continents were set in the same position forever. The realisation that the Earth’s plates are dynamic revolutionised the study of earthquakes.

1964
1964
Japanese prediction plan

A 5-year plan with the goal of accurate earthquake forecasting is launched in Japan. Methods to be explored include observation of tides, crustal deformation and seismic activity as well as rock testing.

1964
Evison’s wall

Creeping faults don’t tend to have large earthquakes. Frank organises the building of a wall across Alpine Fault to see if it’s creeping.

1965
1965
Data explosion

During the mid-1960s significant improvements in technology (particularly in communication and travel) make earthquake data much more uniform and readily available. This makes it much easier to look for patterns and leads to an increase in forecasting efforts.

1965
Expansion of seismograph network

Diag. 2. New Zealand network of seismograph stations', from An Encyclopaedia of New Zealand, edited by A. H. McLintock, originally published in 1966. Te Ara

As director of the Geophysics Division of DSIR, Frank organises major upgrade and expansion of New Zealand seismograph network.

1967
1967
Inaugural Professor of Geophysics

Appointed inaugural Professor of Geophysics at Victoria University of Wellington.

1970
1970
Begins research into earthquake forecasting

Possesses a strong belief that scientists have a duty to society and that reliable earthquake prediction would help minimise loss of life and suffering. Works passionately towards this goal until his death.

1971
1971
Establishes Institute of Geophysics

Has a vision for an interdepartmental institute with members from geology, physics, chemistry, mathematics and geography departments in addition to members outside the university.

1973
1973
Interest in precursors

Lloyd Homer, GNS Science

Frank uses first portable seismographs in NZ to compare mechanisms of main shock and the aftershocks of the Inangahua earthquake.

1975
1975
Earthquakes can be predicted

The predominant scientific view in the 1970s is that earthquake prediction is possible.

1975
Rikitake precursors

Tsuneji Rikitake publishes key paper suggesting use of a variety of geophysical precursors as a strategy to predict earthquakes.

1975
Haicheng prediction in China

Using a sequence of foreshocks, scientists predict the Haicheng earthquake and evacuate the city, saving thousands of lives. Some scientists do not view this as a true prediction – rather, a very lucky coincidence.

1976
1976
Collaboration with David Rhoades

GNS Science

Begins work with David Rhoades, now a statistician at GNS. This successful partnership continues until Frank’s death.

1977
1977
Predicting earthquakes in the USA

The National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) is launched in the USA with a focus on earthquake prediction techniques.

1977
Precursory swarm hypothesis

Frank’s first attempt at a forecasting model based on idea that swarms of earthquakes act as precursors to main-shock events. Frank sees predictive potential of these swarms and begins to work with statistician David Rhoades.

1979
1979
Seismic gap theory – McCann et al.

A seismic gap is a period of inactivity along a fault that has been seismically active in the past. Many scientists (including McCann et al.) theorise that the likelihood of an earthquake increases with the length of seismic gap.

1979
Frank retires

ITS Image Services, Victoria University of Wellington

Retires as chair of the Geophysics Institute and continues as Emeritus Professor.

1982
1982
Generalised precursory swarm hypothesis

Based on a study of Japanese earthquakes, Frank develops a more complex version of his first prediction model. He hypothesises that clusters of precursory swarms of earthquakes are followed by clusters of main-shock events.

1984
1984
Code of conduct for scientists

Frank is involved in the drafting of an international code of conduct for scientists involved in earthquake prediction and becomes even more committed to rigorous testing of prediction models.

1985
1985
Parkfield prediction experiment

Scientists Bakun and Lindh predict that a moderate-size earthquake will occur at Parkfield, California, between 1985 and 1993. (A large earthquake did occur but not until 2004.)

1990
1990
Franks wife, Joan dies

Joan had been Frank’s wife for 41 years.

1992
1992
Services to seismology (OBE)

Appointed as an Officer of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire for services to seismology.

1995
1995
Earthquakes cannot be predicted

A less optimistic view prevails, and the international research focus starts to shift from earthquake prediction to damage mitigation.

1997
1997
Earthquakes cannot be predicted

Geller et al. publish a paper in Science claiming that earthquakes cannot be accurately predicted. They urge investment in earthquake-resistant structures and tsunami warning systems rather than earthquake prediction.

2000
2000
Increasing public demand for information

The rise of the internet and mobile phone technology increases public demand for information, especially following a large earthquake. This increases pressure on scientists to provide accurate short-term forecasts.

2003
2003
‘Tail wags the dog’ method

Vladimir Keilis-Borok and his team at UCLA claim to have successfully predicted two earthquakes in the USA and Japan. A subsequent publicly announced prediction of a large earthquake in California proves to be a false alarm.

2004
2004
Precursory scale increase phenomenon

Frank and David Rhoades publish their work on the precursory scale increase phenomenon. They provide 47 examples of an increase in seismicity before large earthquakes in California, Greece, Turkey, Japan and New Zealand.

2004
EEPAS forecasting model

David and Frank develop the EEPAS (every earthquake a precursor according to scale) forecasting model based on the precursory scale increase phenomenon. The model is tested and later used in operational forecasting in New Zealand.

2005
2005
Frank dies

The Wellesley Club

Passes away in his home in Wellington at the age of 82.

2006
2006
New technology renews optimism

The prevailing view is that earthquake forecasting methods will gradually improve due to new and better data streams (enabled by modern technology) combined with improved understanding of the physics of earthquake generation.

2006
Scholarship established

Frank Evison Research Scholarship in Geophysics established through donations from Frank’s family, the Earthquake Commission, GNS Science, the New Zealand Geophysical Society and a range of private donors.

2008
2008
Evison Symposium in Wellington

Evison Symposium on Seismogenesis and Earthquake Forecasting attended by national and international scientists. Two special journals are published to honour Frank’s interest in earthquake generation and forecasting.

2010
2010
Work continues on the EEPAS model

David Rhoades continues to apply the EEPAS model to catalogues of earthquakes around the world with the goal of increasing the strength of this model.

2011
2011
Scientists on trial in Italy

Six Italian scientists and one government official put on trial in Italy for manslaughter after failing to predict the 6.3 magnitude earthquake in April 2009 that caused the deaths of 309 people in the Italian city of L’Aquila. Find out more here.

Published:23 February 2012